ICE - special

Kurmanbek Bakiyev "Both of the men have been a part of the Kyrgyz nomenclature for years. Bakiyev rose in the south of the country, already within the Communist structures and then after the independence of Kyrgyzstan ruled a province in the south and then came to the centre, to Bishkek in 2000 and served as prime minister for two years. So, he was very close to the President Akayev and was a part of the establishment. The same goes for Felix Kulov. He was also in Communist structures, was Interior Minister, head of the security service of independent Kyrgyzstan and he was Vice-President of Askar Akayev. So, both of them were part of the establishment but fell out of grace at a certain period of time - Bakiyev in 2002 and Kulov in 2000 and that is the prime motive for them to fight Akayev and regain power."

Presidential elections are apparently planned for June. Can this revolution hold, in your view, and can these two men work together? Some observers say there is not much love lost between them.

Felix Kulov "No, not at all. They can't work together so what I expect is a more serious split and we all don't know at the moment what risk that entails. It might even include violent clashes between the different clans these two people are representing. Kulov is a Russian speaker from the north of the country and he is quite close to the clans that supported Akayev for a couple of years throughout the 1990s. Bakiyev is from the south and he represents the more Islamic, the more rural people in the south of the country. So, they have two different backgrounds with regard to their regional affiliations and they have different ideas about what to do with Kyrgyzstan."